Technical analysis: key levels for gold, silver and crude

A surging dollar and more buoyant indices have put pressure on commodities, with oil affected by the prospect of increased exports from Iran. 

A man walking by oil barrels
Source: Bloomberg

Gold could slip to $1160

Gold longs can take heart from the fact that the metal is holding above $1180, but a close below here and the 20-day simple moving average at $1176 would confirm the existing bearish momentum. The relative strength index (RSI) has declined once again today, while stochastics are still in a bearish pattern. A drop below yesterday’s lows would ignite a move to $1160, and then the March lows at $1143. A close back above $1200 is needed to halt this.

Silver’s rally efforts fail

Attempts by silver to rally this morning have been beaten back down, leaving the metal stuck firmly in a downtrend. The RSI and stochastics are still closely-aligned and bearish, so the first target remains $16.50 before a move downwards to $16.

Brent RSI below 10-DMA

If Brent can close below yesterday’s closing low of $55.12, then the downside to the $54 and then $52.56 levels will be opened up. This likelihood is reinforced by the drift of the RSI below its 10-day moving average and the bearish crossover in the stochastics.

WTI’s momentum indicators bearish

WTI is already racing lower, although $47 might provide some support as it did on 24 and 25 March. A break below here targets $45 and then $44, the closing low from mid-March. As with Brent, the momentum indicators of the RSI and stochastics are bearish, giving weight to the downside hypothesis. 

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