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Technical analysis: key levels for gold, silver and crude

Gold and silver look to be preparing for a move higher, but oil markets remain relatively quiet ahead of inventory data.

Gold bars
Source: Bloomberg

Gold could look to $1320

The four-hour chart continues to provide a pleasing guide for those looking for longs in gold.

The 200-period moving average has served well as support over the past two weeks, with the most recent example being yesterday. If the moving average can continue to fulfil this role then the signs are more promising for a retry of the $1320 level.

Ideally the intraday relative strength index would begin to turn higher to support this move, together with a close above the 50-period MA.

$21 level unbroken for silver

For silver the $21 level remains unbroken, but if the metal can avoid any sudden lurches lower, then a rising 50-daily moving average will provide a technical buy signal as it moves through the 200-DMA. The upside target, if $21 is cleared, is still $21.50. On the downside, the low around $20.60 from 16 July is still holding.

Brent finds support at $107

Yesterday’s push through the 200-hour MA was defeated, but $107 is still holding Brent up. With the RSI and other momentum indicators moving higher on the intraday chart, there may be another attempt to break higher. However, on a daily chart, even a move through $108 would have to breach the 200-DMA as well, to signal the start of a more extensive move.

NYMEX holds above 200-hour MA

For NYMEX the picture may be more promising, even if the push above $103 yesterday was repulsed. With the commodity holding above the 200-hour MA there is an indication of further upside, but it will need to clear yesterday’s high around $103.40 to be the beginning of a rally.

On a daily chart the commodity needs to close above the 20-DMA, currently at $103, before we can be more bullish in this area. The $100 level still acts as support on the downside.

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