Levels to watch: FTSE, DAX and Dow

The great day dawns for Greece (once again), and indices are already exhibiting the skittish behaviour that is likely to dominate as we await news from the Eurogroup meeting.

Trader
Source: Bloomberg

FTSE still stuck in its range
Once again we begin a day with the FTSE 100 mired in its 100-point range, between 7000 and 7100. For those of us that like long-term trends, this kind of movement is deeply frustrating. A close above 7100 would signal that the bulls have found their momentum again, but at the moment it is equally plausible that the index will drop and break below 7000.

In which case, we look to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 6929. A break of this takes us back to a rising trendline from the December lows, with rising support at 6800.

DAX resolution lacking
The DAX's attempt to break through the 14-day exponential moving average (EMA) – 11,939 – yesterday did not succeed and the index finds itself sitting just above the 50-day SMA (11,740) once again. At present, it seems like this is an index that is clearly poised to break out, but the actual direction still looks unclear.

As yesterday, a close below the 50-day SMA targets 11,000 and the rising 100-day SMA, while a close back above 11,800 will give bulls the upper hand. However, they will need to build on this with a further move above 12,000 to avoid repeating the consolidation pattern of the past week at a higher level.

Dow tiptoes higher
Wide daily ranges on the Dow Jones continue to be the norm, but the actual gains are fairly small. Nonetheless, the index finds itself within easy distance of all-time highs once again, as it clambers back above the 18,000 level.

Once Greece is out of the way (even if it is small beer for US indices) and the new week kicks off, a run to the all-time highs is entirely plausible.

A failure to hold above the 50-day SMA (17,970) would signal another drop lower, possibly finding support again around the 100-day SMA (17,819) or even heading towards the 200-day SMA at 17,448, for a real test of sentiment.

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