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Yesterday I ran a few scenarios on how the euro might play out and the one that came to fruition was a momentum play on a break of 1.3600. The pair traded down to support at 1.3500 where buyers returned to the market and managed to push the pair higher. It’s been a muted Asian session for EUR/USD with the pair hanging around 1.3661 and little changed. While it has exhibited some strength since the meeting, I feel this merely presents fresh selling opportunities at higher levels. The 200-day moving average comes in just short of 1.3700 and I feel it’ll present some resistance. Perhaps some offers will start coming in at around those levels.
On the European calendar today we have German trade balance, industrial production, French government balance and trade balance. All these readings are unlikely to have too much of an impact. Instead, we are more likely to see some activity on the USD side of the equation. The USD has been subdued over the past 24 hours but this could all change if we get a solid non-farm payrolls print. USD strength would have a net negative impact on the pair.