The US dollar had caught a bit of a bounce after Fed member Dudley had come out and emphasised the possibility of a September hike, despite copious evidence to the contrary. But the Fed minutes (released at 4:00am AEST) provided a much more comprehensive summary of the views of different Fed members and their dovishness has increasingly put a 2016 rate hike into doubt. There is clearly strong disagreement within the Fed with regards to the timing of further rate hikes. Despite some members saying that an immediate hike is appropriate and some saying one would soon be warranted, the more cautious members of the Fed said that they would have 'ample time' to react to a rise in inflation. This does seem to be a noticeable a change from the previous concern that the Fed may 'overshoot' the inflation target. And given this week’s poor US CPI release since the Fed meeting, this view is only likely to gain traction. Nonetheless, market pricing for a December rate hike sits staunchly at 50.5% according to Bloomberg WIRP calculation.
- Andre markeder
- IG tjenester