EUR/USD could retest $1.0450
Last week saw confusion following the latest speech from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen as she left the door open for the Federal Open Market Committee to either continue on its current course or start to raise interest rates. Currency markets continue to factor in two interest rate rises in the second half of the year, both of 25 basis points. The first of these is still viewed as being likely in June/July with the second expected to arrive around September. Currency traders’ conviction on this is not as solid as it had previously been.
The perennial problem hanging over the eurozone is Greece. The longevity of this problem looks to be leading towards an increased willingness to entertain the idea that country will leave the eurozone.
The 50-day moving average has again worked as a cap on any upside in EUR/USD and a retest of the $1.0450 lows from earlier in the month looks on the cards.