For the moment, the focus has shifted away from Europe. Germany’s ZEW index was worryingly weak yesterday, but we will have to wait until tomorrow for further data on the health of the eurozone’s strongest pillar, and indeed for news on the broader currency union.
Tuesday’s figures tilted speculation slightly in the direction of expectations for some kind of monetary action by the European Central Bank at next month’s meeting, but if tomorrow’s figures are stronger the pendulum will shift back towards ‘no change’. Deflation is not yet a real threat for the eurozone, but more and more people are talking about it as a possibility.
In my view, a run back towards $1.38 is still a possibility, given the strength of the upward move seen in EUR/USD during February. That area certainly acts as a key line of resistance, and further indications of some sort of move from the ECB would only push the currency pair higher.