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(Q1 trading statement on 13 December)
In common with the rest of the sector, Bellway shares took a hit following the Brexit vote and have only recovered some of their losses in the months since. Its full-year numbers for the period to 31 July noted that reservations from 24 June to 31 July were 13% higher than for the same period a year ago, so the market will be closely watching to see how the rest of the quarter went. Signs of strength could mean the shares put on a late surge to help recover some lost performance.
Like others in the sector, Bellway trades on a cheap forward earnings multiple, relative to the average over the past five years (7.6 versus an average of 10.2). With a healthy dividend yield of 4.5% into the bargain, the longer-term picture seems to offer a good margin of safety.
Bellway shares started the year at a price of around £28. The post-Brexit low was £16 with the shares moving back towards £25 during the fourth quarter. So far they have been unable to push on meaningfully above this level. A break higher could see a challenge of £27, while a drop through £23 could mark the end of the post-Brexit bounce.