Stocks plunge as trade-war and tariffs return to headlines

Tariffs and trade-wars are back in the headlines, and have dominated market action overnight. That sent stock indices tumbling in European and North American trade.

Stock markets tumble on return of tariff talk

Tariffs and trade-wars are back in the headlines, and have dominated market action overnight. That sent stock indices tumbling in European and North American trade. Sentiment could finally be turning, just in the short-term, following several weeks of irrational exuberance in equity markets. The negativity in global markets has come despite what was, overall, a reasonably solid day for economic data, that allayed some concerns about the global economy. Nevertheless, the ASX 200 is set up for some big losses at the open, too, as a consequence of the turn in sentiment, ahead of a day highlighted by the final RBA meeting for 2019.

An unofficial trade-deal “deadline”

Stocks indices in Europe and the US fell after US President Donald Trump hiked steel tariffs on Argentina and Brazil, and one of the President’s senior advisers, Wilbur Ross, suggested that tariffs on China could still be hiked yet, if a trade-deal can’t be reached between the two countries. Of most immediate concern to market participants, were Ross’s comments, who went as far as suggesting that the December 15 date, for which the next round of tariff-hikes are scheduled, could be a “logical deadline”. The comments seem to have scuppered sentiment, with European shares dropping 2%, and the S&P 500 losing 0.7%, overnight.

Brinkmanship could return to US-China talks

As this December 15 “deadline” approaches, brinkmanship may once again be the name of the game. The view about trade-talks is becoming quite “zero-sum” again, meaning both the US and China may well be angling at trying to use this “phase-one” trade-deal as a way of scoring a political win against the other. It’s not that this wasn’t always known, however the “trade-deal” narrative in the market had fed upon itself in recent weeks, driving equity market prices beyond what can be considered fair and rational, in the bigger picture. A reversal of this dynamic may be afoot now, as speculators go from bulls to bears.

Sentiment could be flipping in stock markets:

Not that this dynamic can’t be reversed again with a positive Tweet, or a “leaked” comment to some state-controlled media agency. However, what’s being observed now is classic, short-term market psychology: traders chasing the herd, and hoping they’re not exposed as the “biggest fool”. Afterall, valuations, positioning and sentiment was getting a bit too bullish. The ASX200 being a big case in point. It’s price action belies totally it’s fundamentals, with the Blended Forward P/E ratio as rich as its been this decade. So: a fundamental recalibration might be coming; and that’s setting up the local market for a big 90-point plunge today.

Bonds spike as Chinese, EU PMIs surprise

There’s a quirky little undercurrent moving markets too, and that’s the big climb in bond yields last night. Looking at stock market price-action, the spike yields is counterintuitive. Just for one, the US 10 Year Treasury yield is up 6 basis points, as markets price-in that the global economy ought to turnaround rolling into 2020. The impetus for this move was a spate of PMI data releases in the last 2 or 3 days – the most significant of those being China’s – that generally beat economist’s expectations. It’s feeding into the notion that the “manufacturing recession” has bottomed – and with it, so has the global growth slowdown.

US ISM PMI data misses, prompting Dollar sell-off

Now, there was a notable exception to the “positive-PMI” story yesterday, and that came from a miss in the crucial US ISM Manufacturing PMI data. That cooled the run higher in bond yields upon its release, and probably compounded the sell-off in stock indices in the North American session. The data also knocked down the US Dollar considerably, and re-introduced a level of volatility into the FX space that had been frustratingly absent in the market for several weeks. The combination of a weaker US Dollar and solid Chinese data has proven a benefit to the AUD, which leapt 0.9% last night.

RBA expected to keep rates on hold today

The day ahead will be highlighted by this afternoon's RBA meeting. The central bank is very unlikely to do anything with rates today, with traders pricing in a lower than 10% chance of a cut. Instead, this'll be a meeting likely spent determining the chances of when the next cut ought to occur. After last week's speech on "unconventional" monetary policy, traders moved to price-in a high chance the RBA will cut rates to 0.25% in 2020. The first step in that process ought to come in February: the market is ascribing a 60% chance of a cut at that meeting.

Stock markets tumble on return of tariff talk

Tariffs and trade-wars are back in the headlines, and have dominated market action overnight. That sent stock indices tumbling in European and North American trade. Sentiment could finally be turning, just in the short-term, following several weeks of irrational exuberance in equity markets. The negativity in global markets has come despite what was, overall, a reasonably solid day for economic data, that allayed some concerns about the global economy. Nevertheless, the ASX200 is set up for some big losses at the open, too, as a consequence of the turn in sentiment, ahead of a day highlighted by the final RBA meeting for 2019.

An unofficial trade-deal “deadline”

Stocks indices in Europe and the US fell after US President Donald Trump hiked steel tariffs on Argentina and Brazil, and one of the President’s senior advisers, Wilbur Ross, suggested that tariffs on China could still be hiked yet, if a trade-deal can’t be reached between the two countries. Of most immediate concern to market participants, were Ross’s comments, who went as far as suggesting that the December 15 date, for which the next round of tariff-hikes are scheduled, could be a “logical deadline”. The comments seem to have scuppered sentiment, with European shares dropping 2%, and the S&P500 losing 0.7%, overnight.

Brinkmanship could return to US-China talks

As this December 15 “deadline” approaches, brinkmanship may once again be the name of the game. The view about trade-talks is becoming quite “zero-sum” again, meaning both the US and China may well be angling at trying to use this “phase-one” trade-deal as a way of scoring a political win against the other. It’s not that this wasn’t always known, however the “trade-deal” narrative in the market had fed upon itself in recent weeks, driving equity market prices beyond what can be considered fair and rational, in the bigger picture. A reversal of this dynamic may be afoot now, as speculators go from bulls to bears.

Sentiment could be flipping in stock markets

Not that this dynamic can’t be reversed again with a positive Tweet, or a “leaked” comment to some state-controlled media agency. However, what’s being observed now is classic, short-term market psychology: traders chasing the herd, and hoping they’re not exposed as the “biggest fool”. Afterall, valuations, positioning and sentiment was getting a bit too bullish. The ASX200 being a big case in point. It’s price action belies totally it’s fundamentals, with the Blended Forward P/E ratio as rich as its been this decade. So: a fundamental recalibration might be coming; and that’s setting up the local market for a big 90-point plunge today.

Bonds spike as Chinese, EU PMIs surprise

There’s a quirky little undercurrent moving markets too, and that’s the big climb in bond yields last night. Looking at stock market price-action, the spike yields is counterintuitive. Just for one, the US 10 Year Treasury yield is up 6 basis points, as markets price-in that the global economy ought to turnaround rolling into 2020. The impetus for this move was a spate of PMI data releases in the last 2 or 3 days – the most significant of those being China’s – that generally beat economist’s expectations. It’s feeding into the notion that the “manufacturing recession” has bottomed – and with it, so has the global growth slowdown.

US ISM PMI data misses, prompting Dollar sell-off

Now, there was a notable exception to the “positive-PMI” story yesterday, and that came from a miss in the crucial US ISM Manufacturing PMI data. That cooled the run higher in bond yields upon its release, and probably compounded the sell-off in stock indices in the North American session. The data also knocked down the US Dollar considerably, and re-introduced a level of volatility into the FX space that had been frustratingly absent in the market for several weeks. The combination of a weaker US Dollar and solid Chinese data has proven a benefit to the AUD, which leapt 0.9% last night.

RBA expected to keep rates on hold today

The day ahead will be highlighted by this afternoon's RBA meeting. The central bank is very unlikely to do anything with rates today, with traders pricing in a lower than 10% chance of a cut. Instead, this'll be a meeting likely spent determining the chances of when the next cut ought to occur. After last week's speech on "unconventional" monetary policy, traders moved to price-in a high chance the RBA will cut rates to 0.25% in 2020. The first step in that process ought to come in February: the market is ascribing a 60% chance of a cut at that meeting.


Deze informatie is opgesteld door IG Europe GmbH en IG Markets Ltd (beide IG). Evenals de disclaimer hieronder bevat de tekst op deze pagina geen vermelding van onze prijzen, een aanbieding of een verzoek om een transactie in welk financieel instrument dan ook. IG aanvaardt geen verantwoordelijkheid voor het gebruik dat van deze opmerkingen kan worden gemaakt en voor de daaruit voortvloeiende gevolgen. IG geeft geen verklaring of garantie over de nauwkeurigheid of volledigheid van deze informatie. Iedere handeling van een persoon naar aanleiding hiervan is dan ook geheel op eigen risico. Een door IG gepubliceerd onderzoek houdt geen rekening met de specifieke beleggingsdoelstellingen, de financiële situatie en behoeften van een specifiek persoon die deze informatie onder ogen kan krijgen. Het is niet uitgevoerd conform juridische eisen die zodanig zijn opgesteld dat de onafhankelijkheid van onderzoek op het gebied van investeringen wordt bevorderd, en dient daarom als marketingcommunicatie te worden beschouwd. Hoewel wij er niet uitdrukkelijk van weerhouden worden om te handelen op basis van onze aanbevelingen en hiervan te profiteren alvorens ze met onze cliënten te delen, zijn wij hier niet op uit. Bekijk de volledige disclaimer inzake niet-onafhankelijk onderzoek en de driemaandelijkse samenvatting.

Live koersen op de populairste markten

  • Forex
  • Aandelen
  • Indices
Verkoop
Koop
Bijgewerkt
Verandering
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Verkoop
Koop
Bijgewerkt
Verandering
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Verkoop
Koop
Bijgewerkt
Verandering
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

Bovenstaande koersen zijn onderhevig aan de Algemene Voorwaarden van onze website. Koersen zijn uitsluitend indicatief. Alle aandelenkoersen lopen ten minste 15 minuten achter.

Mogelijk bent u geïnteresseerd in…

Dankzij onze transparante kostenpagina ziet u gemakkelijk de kosten die met uw trades gemoeid kunnen gaan.

Ontdek waarom zoveel klanten ons kiezen en wat ons de grootste CFD-provider ter wereld maakt.

Blijf op de hoogte van gebeurtenissen die de markten kunnen opschudden dankzij onze aanpasbare economische kalender.

CFD’s zijn complexe instrumenten en brengen vanwege het hefboomeffect een hoog risico met zich mee van snel oplopende verliezen. 75% van de retailbeleggers lijdt verlies op de handel in CFD’s bij deze aanbieder. Het is belangrijk dat u goed begrijpt hoe CFD's werken en dat u nagaat of u zich het hoge risico op verlies kunt permitteren. Opties en turbocertificaten zijn complexe financiële instrumenten. Uw vermogen loopt risico. U kunt uw geld snel verliezen. CFD’s zijn complexe instrumenten en brengen vanwege het hefboomeffect een hoog risico met zich mee van snel oplopende verliezen.