Asia week ahead - US-China trade talks, US earnings

A week that commenced with growth concerns fizzled into consolidation, beholding the event risks to come.

Source: Bloomberg

What we have to watch next week are ones that would very likely provide us with further directions as to where global equity markets are headed.

US-China talks: Deal or no deal?

The most prominent event to watch in the coming week would be the second round of trade talks between US and China in Washington. Expected to be held over January 30-31, this round of talks extends from the first in Beijing where positive but vague statements had been issued at the end of the meeting from both sides. Other than the apparent eagerness to see a deal being established, the state of relations appears to have been little changed since. The latest update from US commerce secretary Wilbur Ross had outlined the two sides being ‘miles and miles’ away from resolving the trade war with many issues complicating matters. This comes after news that US had cancelled preparatory talks with China over intellectual property rules and China’s reforms issues, items that sit at the core of this trade dispute, though this news had later been disputed.

Although the clock is ticking on the talks, it is unlikely that the market would sink on the lack of a deal this round, in light of the distance to the hard deadline set on March 1. Progress, however, would remain something that the market craves for particularly on the difficult issues outlined above. The posturing ahead of the talks had made it hard to discern the flavour that the talks would take, thus seeing the corresponding indecisiveness within markets this week. Watch for where the conclusions would guide markets as the jury is still out on whether the bulls or bears are in control of the equity market.

Wave of earnings

Following the slew of US bank earnings, we have seen a more assorted set this week bringing the total release to 21% of the US 500. Of which, 75% had beat the earnings forecasts, though only a mere 59% had done so for revenue according to Refinitiv data. As we move towards the heart of the earnings season, an approximate 13% are expected to report in the following week. This will feature a number of FANGs stocks including Facebook Inc. and Apple Inc. (preview here) that could provide the wider market with stronger impetus for moves.

Interestingly, the takeaway from the earnings season thus far had been one of relief rallies whereby a beat in forecasts and a better 2019 outlook became the recipe for post-earnings gains. Facebook and Apple had been among which that saw poor guidance for their December quarter, expectations that had since been priced in. One should note how the outlook will be positioned for an indication on the post-release reaction, where the bias sits to the upside based on the performance of the earnings season thus far.

Growth check – US payrolls, China PMI, US GDP?

Running alongside the blockbuster events highlighted above would be the release of a slew of economic indicators with the turn of the month, and mind if I highlight this would also mean month end trading.

While the fate of the US GDP release hangs on the line as the US government shutdown enters its 35th day this Friday, the labour market update would appear as scheduled next week. This comes after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting conclusion. I would love for the FOMC meeting to have its own paragraph for illustration, but amid the whirlwind of events next week, the FOMC may well dwindle down to a non-event with similar emphasis on data dependency and patience towards further rate rises from the Fed. Onto the labour market update, however, it would be a balance between the strong 183k payrolls addition expectation against the 0.3% month-on-month average hourly earnings growth. Surprises for the latter could see reactions cutting across to the greenback in particular. If we should get a glimpse of the first reading for US Q4 GDP, expected at 2.8% quarter-on-quarter, this would likewise be a key one to watch for market implications, across to Asia as well.

Finally for Asia centric data, but with global implications, one should watch the manufacturing PMI numbers out of China. After having both the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs enter into contraction territory in December, forecasters have pencilled in further declines to 49.3 and 49.5 respectively. The materialization, or even further disappointment, could serve as a reminder of the growth slowdown in China for the first readings in 2019, potentially denting markets across equities to commodities. This would, of course, be balanced against the trade picture as the keynote Washington talks unfold.


Deze informatie is opgesteld door IG Europe GmbH en IG Markets Ltd (beide IG). Evenals de disclaimer hieronder bevat de tekst op deze pagina geen vermelding van onze prijzen, een aanbieding of een verzoek om een transactie in welk financieel instrument dan ook. IG aanvaardt geen verantwoordelijkheid voor het gebruik dat van deze opmerkingen kan worden gemaakt en voor de daaruit voortvloeiende gevolgen. IG geeft geen verklaring of garantie over de nauwkeurigheid of volledigheid van deze informatie. Iedere handeling van een persoon naar aanleiding hiervan is dan ook geheel op eigen risico. Een door IG gepubliceerd onderzoek houdt geen rekening met de specifieke beleggingsdoelstellingen, de financiële situatie en behoeften van een specifiek persoon die deze informatie onder ogen kan krijgen. Het is niet uitgevoerd conform juridische eisen die zodanig zijn opgesteld dat de onafhankelijkheid van onderzoek op het gebied van investeringen wordt bevorderd, en dient daarom als marketingcommunicatie te worden beschouwd. Hoewel wij er niet uitdrukkelijk van weerhouden worden om te handelen op basis van onze aanbevelingen en hiervan te profiteren alvorens ze met onze cliënten te delen, zijn wij hier niet op uit. Bekijk de volledige disclaimer inzake niet-onafhankelijk onderzoek en de driemaandelijkse samenvatting.

Neem een positie in op indices

Ga vandaag nog handelen in 's werelds grootste aandelenindices.

  • De laagste spreads op Wall Street op de hele markt
  • Een spread van 1 punt op de FTSE 100 en Duitsland 30
  • De enige provider die 24 uur per dag prijzen quoot

Live prijzen op de populairste markten

  • Forex
  • Aandelen
  • Indices
Verkoop
Koop
Bijgewerkt
Verandering
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Verkoop
Koop
Bijgewerkt
Verandering
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Verkoop
Koop
Bijgewerkt
Verandering
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

Bovenstaande koersen zijn onderhevig aan de Algemene Voorwaarden van onze website. Koersen zijn uitsluitend indicatief. Alle aandelenkoersen lopen ten minste 15 minuten achter.

Mogelijk bent u geïnteresseerd in…

Dankzij onze transparante kostenpagina ziet u gemakkelijk de kosten die met uw trades gemoeid kunnen gaan.

Ontdek waarom zoveel klanten ons kiezen en wat ons de grootste CFD-provider ter wereld maakt.

Blijf op de hoogte van gebeurtenissen die de markten kunnen opschudden dankzij onze aanpasbare economische kalender.

CFD’s zijn complexe instrumenten en brengen vanwege het hefboomeffect een hoog risico mee van snel oplopende verliezen. 74% van de retailbeleggers lijdt verlies op de handel in CFD’s met deze aanbieder. Het is belangrijk dat u goed begrijpt hoe CFD's werken en dat u nagaat of u zich het hoge risico op verlies kunt permitteren. Opties en warrants zijn complexe financiële instrumenten. Uw vermogen loopt risico. U kunt uw geld snel verliezen. CFD’s zijn complexe instrumenten en brengen vanwege het hefboomeffect een hoog risico mee van snel oplopende verliezen.