FX levels to watch – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

The dollar is enjoying a strong period as EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD are selling off sharply. With AUD/USD and GBP/USD both looking for further downside, will EUR/USD negate its medium term uptrend?

Dollar and pounds
Source: Bloomberg

EUR/USD falls back into deep retracement

EUR/USD sold off into the 76.4% Fibonacci level on Friday, in what looks like a retracement of the rally from $1.0493 given the wider uptrend that has been in place throughout 2017. With that in mind, there is reason to believe that the pair will begin to turn higher in the near future. Either that, or we can see a break below $1.0493, which would signify a major bearish shift on the longer term picture for the pair.

For now, we would have to break all the way back above $1.0689 to provide a new higher high. Thus it makes sense to see how things play out around this region. Whether it will be the creation of a base, or further selling to move closer to the key $1.0493 level. Given the bearish signals seen for the likes of GBP/USD and AUD/USD, it’s likely we could end up breaking below $1.0493 and out of this longer term uptrend.

GBP/USD breaks below crucial support level

GBP/USD managed to break below the key $1.2376 support level on Friday, in what was essentially a confirmation that we are set for further losses in the coming weeks.

The question here is whether we will see a countertrend retracement first or not. There is certainly a good chance that it will come to fruition. However, any rally would be seen as a selling opportunity unless it breaks through $1.2506. Conversely, an hourly close below $1.2366 would signify that we are set for another leg lower for the pair. 

AUD/USD breaks below double top neckline

AUD/USD has broken below the critical $0.7491 support level this morning, bringing a strong bearish signal for the medium term future of this pair. Subsequent price action has retested that level as new found resistance, which points towards further near-term downside.

Given that we have come so far in such a short time, the potential for a rebound is always there. However, as long as we continue to create new lower highs and lower lows, this trend looks like it could have further legs after this major development. 

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