This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
What now remains to be seen is how much poor weather will be blamed for the jobs data this year.
In yet another weather-related failure to meet consensus expectation, US private employers added 139,000 jobs in February with gains in the previous month also revised lower from 175,000 to 127,000.
While there is undoubtedly some relationship between ADP numbers and the non-farm payrolls number, correlation has been tenuous at best over the past year. Nevertheless, the failure to match expectations along with the downward revision tends to bring a certain confluence to the two metrics.
This Friday, market participants are expecting to hear that a total of 151,000 jobs were added in February, anticipating the rate of unemployment to stay the same at 6.6%.
US indices remain at all-time highs yet, with the crisis in Russia still something of a concern. Sentiment in the market is vulnerable and any fears that the US growth picture is faltering could see profit-taking set in.