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Greece overshadows Tesco AGM
The week ends much as it began, with Greece at the top of the agenda. It appears that we were too eager last week to declare that Greece had entered the last chance saloon; this weekend is the final opportunity for a deal. Despite the failure to hammer out an agreement, eurozone indices have still made gains on expectations that a deal will be struck.
If investors are wrong, Monday could be ugly, since it seems doubtful that markets could open next week without a heavy sell-off if no deal has been agreed. Thus, tiresomely, we are forced to say that the tone of next week, like the one preceding it, will be determined by how the Greek situation develops. Speaking of intractable problems,
Tesco's AGM has gone off without any major fireworks. Sales are improving, but one quarter doesn't fix a supermarket of this size. Dave Lewis needs to establish a record of consistent delivery, which can only be proved in the coming months.
US dollar remains strong regardless of European drama
Greece has been an influence on US markets, but it is as nothing compared to what the US dollar does next. Overall the week ahead looks a difficult one for indices, given that they have failed to hold on to the ground gained in the early sessions of the past week.
Anticipation of stronger job numbers will lead to a surge in enthusiasm for the US dollar that threatens to result in a slump for equities. US earnings season is still some way off, so the way is clear for the S&P 500 to push below 2100 in the next week.
Gold looks to climb higher
Although gold has not enjoyed the week, there will be expectations that a move above $1180 is in the offing should Greece fail to reach a deal. If anything can revive the safe haven trade, it is an impending Grexit, and we can expect a strong rally in precious metals if politicians fail to sort the Greek situation out over the weekend.
Dollar overshadows forex markets
The US dollar continues to cast its long shadow over all other currencies, since investors would rather put their weight behind the certainty of a US rate increase, rather than the sheer folly of assuming a Greek deal will be done and dusted come Sunday. Even if an agreement is sorted, the weight of US data next week should mean that the US dollar retains its fundamental attractiveness.