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Capital controls a possibility
Considering all the comments we have heard in the last 48 hours from both sides of the debate between the creditors and the Greeks, EUR/USD has remained remarkably calm. Overnight opinion polls in Greece clearly show the public believe it is the ECB and IMF who are being inflexible rather than their government when it comes to a lack of progress in discussions.
Without any real pressure from its own voting public, Syriza looks unlikely to improve the last offer that it tabled and a stalemate looks inevitable. German politicians have already stated that if nothing is agreed by the weekend capital controls will be readied.
Part of the reason that EUR/USD's rate has remained stable is the fact that the presence of Greece has helped devalue the currency, and any default would take it a step closer to leaving the union. From now until the weekend we can expect lots of speculation and conjuncture but precious little in the way of facts — the perfect environment for a little volatility.