This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Low-beta sectors such as utilities and telecommunications would be the most likely places to see buying if investors are not still going to be hiding in cash. Telstra actually closed in positive territory on Friday. Investors are now expecting further easing from most of the major central banks, and this has driven strong buying in the safest sectors of the bond market. Market pricing for an RBA rate cut in August lifted to 60% on Friday, expectations for a rate hike by the Fed in 2016 have completely disappeared, and markets are expecting the BOE to cut to zero and restart asset purchases. Many are now expecting that the UK economy could go into a technical recession in the second half of 2016 as investment and consumption dry up in the post-Brexit uncertainty.
Cable – the GBP/USD – settled down 8.5% on Friday at a 30-year low around US$1.36, but in early trade today the pound has already fallen a further 1.87%. It is very difficult to say what fair value is for the pound is given the very real prospect of Scotland electing to leave, and the real risk that the many years of work that went into the Northern Ireland peace process begin to unravel.
Investors may have been surprised that the FTSE only lost 3.15% on Friday, but in USD terms the loss was 10%. The currency moves were so dramatic on Friday, one kind of has to look at most markets in US dollar terms: FTSE -10.03%, DAX -8.36%, CAC -9.56%, MIB -12.48%, IBEX -12.35%.
The main focus in the Asian session will be Japan. After the USD/JPY dropped 3.7% on Friday the Nikkei saw a horror selloff of 7.9%, although in USD terms this was trimmed to 4.76%. Speculation is growing that the Bank of Japan will add an extra 10 billion yen a month to their asset purchasing program to try to stem the strength in the yen. And investors will be watching the yen very closely to see if it begins to move on intervention speculation. The Nikkei is expected to open over 1% higher.
The ASX is looking to open slightly higher as well, and it may actually benefit from the further dearth of yield in the post-Brexit environment given it has one of the highest dividend yields in the world and is sheltered somewhat from Europe. Gold miners are set to continue to see further gains, but the rest of the materials and energy sector are in for some trouble as commodity prices were hit hard on Friday. The ASX companies with high UK exposures, such as BT Investment, Henderson Group and Westfield, could all be in for further difficulties.