FX levels to watch – EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD

EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD are all rallying this morning. Could these moves be on borrowed time?

Euro and US dollar notes
Source: Bloomberg

EUR/USD driving higher from fib retracement

EUR/USD is turning higher from a deep pullback towards the 76.4% retracement, following a break higher on Friday. This is a continuation of the bullish theme that has been in place for three weeks now.

Given the long upper shadow on Friday, there is a good chance of a reversal from here. However, we have not seen anything to prove this is happening and as such, a bullish view is in play for a move back into $1.1222-$1.1230 resistance.

We would need to see an hourly close below $1.1131 to negate this bullish outlook and bring things back onto the medium/long-term bearish view.

GBP/USD rally unlikely to last

IN_GBPUSD is seeing a countertrend rally this morning, following on from a sharp pullback late on Friday. Should the pair post an hourly close above the $1.2939 mark, this would point towards a deeper retracement, with the $1.3 handle of particular interest (76.4% retracement). Ultimately, another leg lower seems likely and as such, retracements are seen as opportunities to get short once more. 

AUD/USD expected to turn lower once more

AUD/USD is pushing higher this morning, following a sharp sell-off at the back end of last week. Crucially, we have seen the pair move lower from a long-term trendline (originating in Q3 2013) and as such there is a good possibility of a wider market reversal coming into play.

With that in mind, the current rally is likely to be on borrowed time, with a rally into either $0.7691 (61.8%) or $0.7704 (76.4%) looking like interesting areas for the pair to turn lower once more. This bearish view is negated with a break and hourly close above $0.7724.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFD’s zijn complexe instrumenten en brengen vanwege het hefboomeffect een hoog risico mee van snel oplopende verliezen. 79% van de retailbeleggers lijdt verlies op de handel in CFD’s met deze aanbieder.
Het is belangrijk dat u goed begrijpt hoe CFD's werken en dat u nagaat of u zich het hoge risico op verlies kunt permitteren.
CFD’s zijn complexe instrumenten en brengen vanwege het hefboomeffect een hoog risico mee van snel oplopende verliezen.