This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Overall, the meeting had minimal impact, but the press conference was construed as ‘less dovish’ than what the market was hoping for. In testament to this, the euro actually managed to regain some ground against the greenback after a long period of underperformance.
EUR/USD traded as low as $1.2577 this week and has since bounced to a high of $1.2700. The short-term downtrend resistance comes in around the $1.2700 mark and the sellers seem to be circling now. Attention now shifts to the USD side of the equation where traders will be eyeing non-farm payrolls data.
Should US payrolls data print a number north of 200,000, we could see the USD rally resume and this would result in some EUR/USD selling. In such a situation I would be eyeing a retest of this week’s lows.