Currencies wait for non-farms chaos

A lull in events in Greece ensures that today’s focus is fully on the US non-farm payrolls data.

Source: Bloomberg

Quiet day in Greece allows for non-farm payrolls focus
Trying to second guess what the Greek Syriza party will do next is a fool’s game, so most currency traders will welcome the momentary lull in developments ahead of this weekend’s referendum. This offers the perfect opportunity to fully focus on the release of today’s US non-farm payrolls figures coming out a day early due to Friday’s US bank holiday in lieu of Saturday’s 4th of July celebrations.

Last month saw 280,000 jobs created and expectations are that we will see 231,000 created this month. This could be one of the more useful tools in assessing how much effect the current stagnation in the eurozone is having on the US economy.

The current levels in EUR/USD, just above $1.1000, have previously seen support materialise, but with so much uncertainty hanging over the Euro side of the equation this might not necessarily be relied upon.

Markets try to gauge impact of Greek fiasco on UK recovery
Yesterday saw the Bank of England governor Mark Carney talk after the release of the latest Financial Stability Report. Much like the rest of the markets there was a strong sub plot to his comments revolving around Greece. Both Mr Carney and his colleagues have seen a slowing of the UK recovery as fears over current developments in Europe dampen investment enthusiasm and impact UK data releases. The issues that have hung over the UK are similar to those that have cooled expectations in the US, however being geographically and fiscally closer have had more of an impact.

Cynics will suggest that the initial GBP/USD reaction we see on the back of today’s non-farm payrolls data will be the wrong one but what the FX markets will be looking to gauge is the gap between the pace of the US recovery and the pace of the UK recovery growing or shrinking.

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CFD’s zijn complexe instrumenten en brengen vanwege het hefboomeffect een hoog risico mee van snel oplopende verliezen.