AUD in focus ahead of RBA and China data

After yesterday’s disappointing jobs numbers, analysts are split on whether this is the beginning of a trend in the jobs market with the unemployment reading at its highest since August 2002, or if this is just noise which is occasionally spit out by the survey. 

Source: Bloomberg

While this reading doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll see a cut anytime soon, it certainly implies we are still a long way from a hike. In fact, it probably suggests there is still downside risk to the economy. At 11.30 AEST we get the RBA’s statement of monetary policy (SoMP) and home loans data, which is expected up 0.6%. This data will also include investment lending and owner-occupier loan value for June. The SoMP will shed more light on the RBA’s views on economic conditions and inflation.

In China, the July trade report is due sometime later today with some suggestions it could be at midday. We will also receive the July PPI/CPI reports on Saturday (our Asian economics team estimates that CPI inflation has nudged up to 2.4% yoy in July).  China’s trade balance is expected to shrink with a drop in exports and imports. All these releases will be pivotal to how the AUD plays out in the near term. Should the SoMP manage to calm things, we could actually see a near-term pop in AUD/USD before further weakness.

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFD’s zijn complexe instrumenten en brengen vanwege het hefboomeffect een hoog risico mee van snel oplopende verliezen. 79% van de retailbeleggers lijdt verlies op de handel in CFD’s met deze aanbieder.
Het is belangrijk dat u goed begrijpt hoe CFD's werken en dat u nagaat of u zich het hoge risico op verlies kunt permitteren.
CFD’s zijn complexe instrumenten en brengen vanwege het hefboomeffect een hoog risico mee van snel oplopende verliezen.