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This particular currency cross is still coming to terms with last week’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes, which saw the EUR/USD jump by 400 pips on the day and then subsequently drop 150 pips over the next four trading days.
This morning we have seen the EU’s trade balance fall from €15.2 billion down to €14.6 billion, which, together with the ZEW sentiment jumping from 30.6 to 32.8, has helped the currency cross move back higher.
The current chart offers a far from clear vision of where EUR/USD is heading, as it is oscillating around the 1.3000 level and has been unable to break out of this range for the last four months.
With both Europe and the US stating that they will be keeping their respective interest rates at low levels for the foreseeable future, it is unlikely that base rates will give much guidance looking forward.
The debate that has been raging for the last month over the exact timing of any US tapering of the current quantitative easing process will be the biggest catalyst in moving the currencies.