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The excitement – verging on hysteria – surrounding Tesla’s groundbreaking announcement in May that it’s developing a new domestic battery pack system has seen the share price rise 41% in less than four months. However, with three investment banks cutting ratings for the firm, that enthusiasm seems to be waning somewhat. UBS has downgraded Tesla to ‘sell’, Deutsche Bank to ‘neutral’ and Pacific Crest reduced its rating to ‘sector weight’.
April saw Tesla attempt to reposition itself away from simply focusing on the automotive sector and towards a series of batteries which would be sold to both businesses and households alike. Growing this ‘Tesla Energy’ business on the back of the existing work building batteries for its electric cars seemed a natural fit, and meant that costs could be minimal.
However, speculation is rife that all is not so rosy in Elon Musk’s garden, with the possibility of a disappointing earnings report on 5 August. There are accusations that the company has gotten ahead of itself, with both the automotive and energy business sales targets seeming highly unlikely. With that in mind, Tesla investors will go into this earnings release with a degree of hesitation.
Tesla is currently valued at half the value of Ford and this really highlights the possibility that investors have got a little carried away and fuels fears that the firm is possibly overvalued. We could see revenues continue to rise, yet with costs increasing many expect to see the losses widen.
From a technical standpoint, the share price is fast approaching an absolutely crucial resistance point at $291.41. A daily close above this could be critical for the future growth of the stock. However, we can see three major red candles this month, when the firm was downgraded, pointing to a hesitancy in the shareholder base which could come back to the fore should earnings disappoint. There are clear jitters considering the size of those selloffs.
The clear rounded bottom we have seen over the past ten months portrays a relatively steady firm which is moving in the right direction. Yet, we have to see that $291.41 level taken out for the bulls to remain in charge. Otherwise the increasingly sceptical market sentiment could see us start to turn around and a move below $255 in particular could provide the signal for a selloff, with the next support level coming at $245.4.