The key release today will be the January Australian jobs report. Consensus stands at 15,000 net jobs created, with the range from economists being 40,000 to 5000. With17 basis points of hikes over the coming 12 months being priced into the market, a weak print could send the pair below the 90 handle. Upside resistance comes in at 0.9079 and rejection of this level could be welcomed by the bears.
The pair is in a downtrend at present, with a series of lower highs seen. The downtrend resistance comes in at 1.3633, so this would be the level at which some will be looking to go short, however trading this pair right now is tough and traders have to be nimble. In European trade today we get the final reading of German CPI (the market is expecting no change of +1.3%), while in the US traders will be looking out for retail sales which are expected to show no growth.
Rio Tinto report at 17:00 AEDT today, with the market expecting a 3% rise in underlying profit of $9.656 billion. The miner is expected to pay a final dividend $1.70, although the range is huge, with some expecting a special dividend. Traders will be keen to look out information around productivity improvements and the impact on unit costs. Any updates on costs will also be in focus.
TLS report pre-market today and analysts expect sales growth of 2% to a$12.9 billion, with NPAT of A$1.8 billion. The dividend should be 14c. Guidance for the full-year should be re-iterated for ‘low single digit’ growth. Analysts will be looking out for good mobile revenue growth of around 6%, with margins in this division expected to improve to 38% in 1H, up one percentage point from the same time last year.
As things stand we expect the ASX 200 to open ten points higher. In terms of earnings the market will be looking out for numbers from ASX, TCL, NST, TLS, RIO (after market), PDN, GMG, CHC and GPT. Australian employment figures at 11:30 will be a potential catalyst too.