Raft of data out of Japan

Four markets in focus today.


It’s going to be a big day of data in Japan, with November CPI (ex-food) to be released at 10:30 AEDT, while retail sales, industrial production and the weekly MOF fund flow data is released shortly after. Inflation is expected to move to 1.1%, which continues to portray a picture of improvement in Japan. The fact that the US ten-year treasury moved to 2.99% and is testing the year’s high of 3% is also putting a bid in the USD.  I continue to like buying dips in USD/JPY and the bulls will be eyeing a move to 105.50 (the 61.8% retracement of the 2007 to 2011 sell-off) over the short to medium-term.


Platinum futures (January) moved sharply higher in US trade, although found good selling pressure at $1382. While natural gas is clearly the strongest performing commodity at present, fundamentally I think platinum could do well in 2014, especially if the global economy shows improvement.

Spot gold

Gold has found modest buying activity despite USD momentum and further moves higher in US bond yields. A break of 3% on the US ten-year bond could be psychologically negative for gold as traders will be seeing opportunity costs associated with holding an asset that doesn’t yield anything. Trend resistance drawn from the October pivot comes in at $1227, so it will be interesting to see if this holds.

Macquarie bank (MQG)

The daily chart of MQG is currently one of the most impressive charts around and continues to do all the right things. Technically there is no reason why MQG can’t continue to push higher and although price is now just over two-standard deviations from the 20-day moving average; this should be seen as a sign of strength. The stock continues to print higher highs and the bulls will be eyeing the September 2009 pivot of $58.80, although the 50% retracement of the all-time high (A$98.64) to GFC low (A$15.05) comes in at A$56.84 and could provide some modest resistance.

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