JHX has been trading in a range of $13.00 and $14.50 since March, and it will be interesting to see if this is tested today with Q1 earnings in focus. On first blush the numbers could be taken badly by the market, notably the outlook statement which sees adjusted net profit of $205 million to $235 million. Management notes the analysts’ estimates range from $226 million to $261 million, with the Bloomberg consensus at $242 million.
Shareholders will be keen to look out for commentary from ANZ in its quarterly update, although naturally we won’t get to learn as much as we did from CBA’s full-year earnings update earlier in the week. Look out for any commentary on its Asian expansion, margins and bad and doubtful debts.
AUD/NZD is at an interesting juncture right now and personally I would be flat and would look at a momentum-based strategy with this pair. Breaking the June 4 high of 1.1035 has been heavy going of late, with good supply coming onto the market on a number of times through July and August. With this in mind I would look at potential long positions on a closing break of 1.1035, placing a potential stop loss around 1.0905 and initially targeting 1.1200. I am not particularly bullish on the AUD, however from a pure technical play I would look at riding potential momentum seen from a break of these recent highs.
Cable has closed below the May and June lows, however looks oversold at current levels with the 14-day RSI at 25 and price hugging the lower Bollinger band. Markets have re-priced expectations around near-term rate hikes from the BoE, however I would caution against getting too bearish on the pound despite the technicals favouring short positions here. At 18:30 today we get UK GDP, although this is merely a revision of the prior reading and should not change from the 3.1% annualised pace.