After the terrible US payrolls on Friday, the AUD was the best performer; rallying around 100 pips to test the 90c handle. Certainly the technicals are looking more compelling, with short-term momentum (as seen by the five day moving average crossing above the 21 day moving average) accelerating to the upside. The key piece of data this week comes in the form of Australian employment and a number above 10,000 jobs could see the pair settle into a short-term 0.9000 to 0.9100 range. On the docket today (at 11:30 AEDT) we get home loan data and ANZ ads.
The CAD was the only currency to find sellers against the greenback on Friday, after what was a terrible jobs number in Canada. There are many reasons to be fairly bearish on the CAD right now, however it has to be said that the pair is overbought, with the ten-day RSI at extremes. Personally I’d be taking profits on longs and looking to buy back in on dips here.
Despite a poor payrolls report the S&P closed up on the day for a ninth consecutive payrolls report. All eyes this week fall on the US banks with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and American express in play. Intel and GE will also get strong focus. Interestingly we’ve seen 108 companies give guidance, with 88% of them providing profit warnings.
In the last five days SLR has been sold off aggressively to the tune of 16.7%. Short interest, at A$16 million is not far away from an all-time high, so with gold spiking on Friday I’d expect a strong day for the gold miner.