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Day four: selling AUD/CAD

I lowered my proposed sell limit on AUD/CAD trades to 1.0185, however the high sell price pushed up to be just shy of this level. 

If filled I would look at placing a potential stop loss on the trade at 1.0255, just above the former uptrend that the pair broke through on Tuesday.

From a pure central bank perceptive it probably favours being long the pair right now as we have heard from the head of the Bank of Canada in recent times that interest rates could still feasibly be lowered in the medium term. With inflation where it currently is in Australia, there is no real reason to cut rates in Australia; given the newsflow, the current pricing in the swaps market (the market is pricing in eight basis points of hikes over the coming twelve months) seems about right.

It will be interesting to see if the market starts to re-couple the falls in the iron ore price with the AUD. Iron ore fell a further 2.6% yesterday and is honing in on the recent low of $104.70. Exports of iron ore from Australia are still really strong, so this is softening the blow from lower pricing, but the current spot price will certainly hold back AUD bulls.

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