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Day three: our Japan 225 trade

The Japan 225 is testing the 50% retracement of the 14,537 to 13,815 at 14,176, just below my sell limit. 

USD/JPY is not really providing any major catalysts and has been trading in a lifeless range of 102 to 101.30 over the last few days. As we know the JPY plays such an important role in the profitability of Japanese exporters, so Japanese equity bulls will want to see a move above 102 on the pair.

In US trade tonight there is a whole raft of US economic data, including building permits, housing starts and industrial production. A number of Fed members will be speaking, including Janet Yellen at 02:25 AEST. The Fed chairman has been fairly vocal in pushing back on interest rate expectations, so the market will presumably be selling USDs into this meeting (which could weigh on the Japan 225), however as we have seen a number of times of late, the market has a tendency to get things wrong.

Japanese industrial production numbers are due at 14:30 and the market expects a decline on the month, throwing weight behind the calls that the BoJ will have to ease further. I still feel the probability is we get easing in the June to July window.

Japan 225
IG Charts

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