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Day four: closing our USD/JPY trade

The Fed stuck fairly well to the playbook I wrote yesterday, removing its hard guidance and adopting a more qualitative guidance for putting up the Feds funds rate.

The key reason why we saw a strong move in bond yields and the USD was due to the upgrade to the Fed fund projections. The market was pricing in 65 basis points of hikes by the end of 2015, however the Fed went above expectations by saying the funds rate would be 1% by 2015.

This is a big development and highlights that the Fed is likely to be more aggressive with hikes. I have closed this trade idea as the price action could become much more bullish from here.

Whether this changes the dynamics of the USD is up for debate, but it does feed into my view that the USD will be the currency to be leveraged to over the next couple of years.

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