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US elections - Timeline and what to watch for

Polling Stations opened this morning at 6 am Swiss time. 

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The outcome of the election on markets can be summed up in a few words as follows:

Victory Clinton: security and stability for the market, unwinding of hedges, which should lead to a "risk-on" positioning. Both the stock markets and the USD should benefit from this. USDCHF and USDJPY have most to win, but are also the most risky in case Trump wins.

Victory Trump: uncertainty in the market to what extent Trump can implement his promises, which should lead to a "risk-off" positioning. The volatility should rise and both the stock markets and the USD should experience short-term pressure. CHF, JPY and Gold would rise. A FED interest hike in December would seriously be questioned.

The Timeline on Election Day (Swiss time)

Tuesday, November 8, 2016 (CET)

06:00: The first ballot opened

12:00: Most of the ballots have opened

22:00: The first survey results could be published

23:00: The first counting results of the individual states are available

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

05: 00/06: 00 probably the earliest time when the elector could be announced. Watch carefully the important swing states of Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania at which polls close between 1 and 2 am GVA-time. A Clinton victory in 2 out of these 3 states would significantly boost here chances to win.

Find out more on US elections

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