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Who has a say on Brexit process?

Following the first informal gathering of the EU member states without the United Kingdom in Bratislava, the participants were unified in a rhetoric of unanimity last week – the access to the EU single market is only possible with a free movement agreement. 

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Although the opposite was one of the key campaign promises of the Brexit supporters, the strident posture of the EU seems no longer to affect the British Pound. The blatant contradictory statements of the British Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Boris Johnson, and the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, regarding the date of the withdrawal from the EU caused much more tension late last week. While Brexit supporter Johnson declared at first in a series of interviews on Thursday evening that he expects the UK to trigger the process to leave the EU in early 2017 and, moreover, assumes that the negotiations would not even take 2 years, Theresa May’s office immediately refuted this statement. Currently, the Brexit supporters seem to prevail in the UK, however, Theresa May is not likely to allow the reins to be taken away from her any time soon. This disunity and the resulting uncertainty had a negative impact on the British Pound that declined in value by more than 1% against the major currencies. The cable currently trades at 1,2980 IN_GBPUSD. Should the currency pair fall below 1,2940 it should pave the way for the July low at 1,2800 GBP/USD. Otherwise a counter-reaction above 1,3100 should be anticipated. The pound will remain highly vulnerable to news from London – or wherever else Boris Johnson may be.

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