The week ahead 28 July - 1 August

A look ahead to the major events, economic releases and company news expected next week.

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Source: Bloomberg

Markets have been generally more positive this week, as concerns about the macro environment fade. Geopolitics is never far away; while the tensions have failed to really shake confidence for any great length of time, developments will be watched closely. The US accusing Russia of planning to arm the separatist movement could keep risk assets contained, notably ahead of the weekend, plus the prospect of markets gapping lower if we do see events take a strong turn for the worse.

Still, next week looms large, and while corporate earnings have been the flavour this week, next week the US economy takes center stage. The raft of macroeconomic announcements stemming from this one region could see a sharp pick-up in asset correlations, so regardless of what market or asset class you focus on there will be a central focus to which all assets will look to.

Economic reports

Monday

US services PMI (July, preliminary), 2.45pm: This measure of US growth is expected to rise, from 61 last month, to 62.3. Market to watch: US indices and dollar crosses

US pending home sales (June), 3pm: Home sales should sharply reverse, according to estimates, from a month-on-month rate of 6.1% to -0.2%. Market to watch: US indices and dollar crosses

Tuesday

Japan jobless rate (June), 12.30am: This should hold steady at 3.5%. Market to watch: Nikkei 225, USD/JPY

US S&P Case-Shiller home price index (May), 2pm: Price growth in 20 major cities is expected to ease to 9.8% from 10.8% last month. Market to watch: US indices and dollar crosses

Wednesday

German CPI (July, preliminary), 1pm: German price growth is forecast to ease to 0.2% MoM and to 0.8% from 1%, which may be bearish for the euro. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

ADP employment report (July), 1.15pm: The private payroll survey of US job growth was 281K last month, but this reading is forecast to be 225K. Market to watch: US indices and dollar crosses

US GDP (Q2, first reading), 1.30pm: US growth is forecast to bounce back from the dismal first quarter, with expectations of 2.9% for growth, from -2.9% in Q1.Market to watch: US indices and dollar crosses

Federal Reserve meeting (July), 7pm: The all-important meeting is not expected to see any change in tapering, remaining at $10 billion, while interest rates should remain unchanged. Market to watch: US indices and dollar crosses

Thursday

German unemployment rate (July), 8.55am: This is expected to remain steady at 6.7%. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

Eurozone unemployment (June), CPI (July), 10am: The former rate should hold at 11.6% for the month and the latter at 0.5% MoM and 0.8% YoY. Market to watch: Euro Stoxx 50, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

US initial jobless claims, 1.30pm: After dropping to pre-crisis lows last week, at 284K, the rate is forecast to rise to 306K. Market to watch: US indices and dollar crosses

Chicago PMI (July), 2.45pm: From 62.6 from last month, this index is expected to rise to 63.1. Market to watch: US indices and dollar crosses

Friday

China manufacturing PMI (July), 2.00pm (official), 2.45pm (HSBC): The two measures are expected to paint slightly different pictures, with the official number rising to 51.3 from 51, and the HSBC number from 52 to 51.9. Market to watch: China A50, copper, AUD/USD

German manufacturing PMI (July, final), 8.55am: This final revision of the number should remain unchanged at 52.9. Market to watch: DAX, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP

UK manufacturing PMI (July), 9.30am: In contrast to the steady rise in UK economic data, this index is expected to edge back to 57.2 from 57.5. Market to watch: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP

US non-farm payrolls (July), 1.30pm: The major event of the month, job creation is expected to ease to 255K from 288K for the month, while unemployment is forecast to remain at 6.1%. Market to watch: US indices & dollar crosses, FTSE 100, oil

US manufacturing PMI (July, final), 2.45pm: From 56.3, the index is expected to slip to 56.1. Market to watch: US indices and dollar crosses

University of Michigan consumer confidence index (July, final), 2.55pm: The last reading for July should rise slightly, to 81.4 from 81.3. Market to watch: US indices and dollar crosses

 

Company announcements

Monday

Reckitt Benckiser, National Grid, Hiscox, Great Portland Estates, Aberdeen Asset Management, Petra Diamonds, Herbalife

Tuesday

GKN, Informa, Tullett Prebon, Drax, Next, , St James's Place, Merck & Co, Pfizer, McGraw Hill, American Express, Twitter

Wednesday

BarclaysRightmoveInternational Personal Finance, Vedanta, 3iTaylor Wimpey, Compass, Travis Perkins, Tullow Oil, ITV, Jupiter Fund Management, National Express, British American Tobacco, WS Atkins, Antofagasta, Segro, Lorillard, Kraft Foods

Thursday

Shell, Lloyds, BG Group, Centrica, AstraZeneca, Intu, Weir Group, Thomas Cook, BT, Kazakhmys, Diageo, Inchcape, Rolls-Royce, Schroders, BAE, Smith & Nephew, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Time Warner, LinkedIn, Tesla

Friday

International Consolidated Airlines, William Hill, Rexam

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