Japanese yen set to weaken substantially

With UK and US markets closed overnight, Asian markets will be looking to Europe for leads today.

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Back-to-back monthly gains in Eurozone economic confidence helped see the main indices push higher into positive territory. Although the initial set up ahead of the Asian session is not looking all that positive. The ASX is set to open down 0.2%, and the much coveted prize of the 5400 level looks set to be lost after a mere two days.

Slightly more concerning is that the Nikkei is also looking to open down. And this is despite the yen falling to its weakest level since April. The USD/JPY gained 0.8% overnight as the US dollar continued to strengthen and as the market increasingly priced in a delay to the 2017 tax increase. On the Ichimoku chart the USD/JPY is now looking like a strong buy. The price has broken above the cloud, the cloud has turned green – all of it is in a textbook confirmed reversal. The Bank of Japan are clearly hoping US data this week doesn’t upset plans for a July rate hike by the Fed.

It is also set to be a big day of Australian data releases with building approvals, balance of payments, net exports and credit all released today. First quarter company profits were far worse than the market had been expecting declining 4.7% quarter-on-quarter. Even though inventories were slightly better than had been expected, risks of a 1Q GDP undershoot do appear to be rising. Today’s building approvals are also set to see further declines, which does not bode well for housing construction’s contribution to GDP in the second half of the year.

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