Dow short recommendation remains intact

Price at time of writing – 16,168.

The 14-point gain on the Dow Jones since last week’s update disguises a week of increased volatility.

With the index closing yesterday at a level just beneath my key resistance – and former long-term target – of 16,175, my recommendation to sell the index remains intact.

In recent years, the US has succeeded in becoming largely self-sufficient in its energy needs, which means any disruption to global gas supplies will impact its economy less than Europe’s. This partially explains why Wall Street’s performance overnight was better than that of the European stock markets earlier in the day. Technically, today I’m making no change to the triggers I have already highlighted recently. The Dow still shows signs of fatigue at 16,175, but needs to break below 15,551 in order to confirm a more aggressive correction. A break below 15,551 would clear the way for the index to double its recent, initial fall of 6.25% to one of 12.5%.

Although a break below 15,551 is yet to occur, I am leaving my downside target of 14,515 unchanged. There is little in the way of support between these two levels, and a clean break could see the near-1000-point fall occur quite quickly.

Recommendation: sell or stay short. Target 14,515. Stop-losses can remain unchanged and be triggered on a break above 16,558.

Dow Jones chart

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