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DAX stuck in summer break

Since the all-time high of 12,955 points at the end of June, the DAX has been heading backwards. 

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And, while on the one hand it broke below the upward trend line seen since mid-2016 (here: orange), on the other it formed a middle-term downward trend (here: red-dashed line). However, since mid-July the Germany’s leading index has been stuck in a trading range between 12,085 and 12,315 points. Any attempts to break lower or higher are continuously being resisted and the index is being immediately pushed back into this trading range. And this in spite of the diesel affair in the German automobile industry and a modest reporting season. In addition, the Dax is currently negatively impacted by the strengthening euro that managed to appreciate against the US dollar by 15% since the turn of the year. The summer depression is to blame for the lack of motivation to break out of the mentioned trading range. Meanwhile, the volatility of S&P 500 has reached – with a value below 10 – historical lows and also the trading volumes remain within the lower range. Should the DAX nevertheless manage to break below this trading range, it will encounter the support zone at the bottom between 11,950 and 12,000 points. Moreover, the range bottom of the mentioned middle-term downward trend can be found here. On the way up, the DAX would have to break above 12,400 points to open up further upward potential. Some movement should be seen by the end of the summer season in late August or early September at the latest ahead of the next ECB meeting.

DAX

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