Chinese equities under pressure, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiking rates and the greenback gaining steam. Sound familiar? The latest research note from Longview Economics states the case for why 2018 is (so far) playing out in similar ways to 2015.
China’s central bank guided the yuan midpoint lower for the sixth trading session in a row, sending the currency down to the lowest level in six months, while the stock market slumped to two-year lows this week. Meanwhile, over in the United States, the dollar is on the rise inching closer to a one-year high and the Fed is firmly in monetary policy tightening mode. In December 2015, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in over nine years while the US dollar moved higher in anticipation of tightening. Meanwhile, in the summer of 2015, China’s stock market crashed from a seven-year high, shedding around 30% in a three-week sell-off following a surge of 150% in the 12 months prior.