USD breaks out of bullish wedge pattern

Last week I looked at buying the USD index at 93.20 for a move through the bullish wedge pattern.

Source: Bloomberg

This has worked well so far and I am happy to stay with the idea, moving the stop loss to break even. The USD is the most important asset right now, so continue watching this like a hawk.

It’s also very interesting to see that the implied probability of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve has actually fallen, but the USD has risen for six days. This has therefore been a pure exercise in positioning, with the market running its largest net short position in the USD for many years (source: weekly Commitment of Traders report).

It's worth also keeping USD/CNH on the radar as this is starting to move, and weakness in the Chinese yuan could be a big negative for equity markets and commodities.

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