While the market was firmly expecting another hike, the statement managed to catch some traders unaware. The bank said rates will now be held for a period, but further tightening is likely over time. The RBNZ feels the economy is showing signs of adjusting to the tightening and as a result this warrants some assessment before further tightening.
Analysts feel it is unlikely we’ll see further tightening before December. This has resulted in a significant unwind of the NZD as the market seems to have been overly long the currency. NZD/USD dropped to a one-month low, but managed to hold on to the 0.8600 handle. However, momentum seems to be firmly to the downside and we could see the pair come under further selling pressure through Asian trade.
NZD/AUD has seen an even sharper drop considering the fundamentals of the AUD over the past few days. Following this morning’s rate decision, the pair has slipped to around 0.9104 and could be looking to extend losses in the near term. There is some support in the 0.9060 region and until there I don’t see any key levels that could prevent further losses.
AUD/USD got a minor lift on the back of China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI reading and this added on to the kicker from yesterday’s CPI reading. China’s HSBC manufacturing PMI reading came in at 52, well ahead of estimates of around 51. This has pushed the pair into the upper Bollinger band which could turn out to be a sell zone for some traders. However, given the significant shift in fundamentals for the AUD over the past few days and the buoyant risk environment, shorts could be out of favour in the near term. Aggressive traders could be eyeing a move into 0.9500 (early July highs) in the near term.