FX levels to watch – GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY

All eyes are on the Fed minutes this afternoon, with the potential for major changes of direction in trends for cable and AUD/USD.

EUR/USD forex pair
Source: Bloomberg

GBP/USD looks primed to climb
Although the pair has dropped back from $1.45, a solid close today, ideally above $1.4450, would likely set us on a path higher, with the potential for a move to $1.45 and then the month-high above $1.46. Just above here is the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.4809.

A turn lower would need to push below support at $1.4350, the lows from last week, while from here the next target would again be the rising trendline off the February/March lows, hitting rising support around $1.4250.

EUR/USD looks toward April lows
The pair has dived through the 50-day SMA ($1.1314), so the next possible area of support is the April low around $1.1223. Below this the next target would be the 100-day SMA at $1.1146 and then the 200-day SMA at $1.1101.

Selling the rallies would seem to be the best approach here, so with the price oversold intraday a rally ahead of Federal Reserve minutes cannot be ruled out.

AUD/USD clings to 200-day SMA
AUD/USD continues to bounce around the 200-day SMA ($0.7259), but for now that indicator continues to hold as support. The 100-day SMA ($0.7341) continues to trap the price, preventing any upside, so we can watch for a break of one of these (followed up by a close above or below it) as an indication of the next move.

If the 200-day is broken, then the next support is down towards $0.7114, while above the 100-day we would look towards $0.74 and then the 50-day SMA at $0.7560.

USD/JPY remains in an uptrend
The uptrend is still in place here, although a fresh leg higher will need to clear yesterday’s highs around ¥109.70. From here the next area to watch would be the 50-day SMA at ¥110.20, and then on to the late April high at ¥112.

A break lower would have to close below ¥108 to indicate that a move back to the May low of ¥106 is underway.

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