GBP/USD stalls below $1.6150
Yesterday’s upward move in GBP/USD has run out of steam for now, although a rising hourly moving average might suggest there is some strength left in the currency pair for a move higher.
In fact a dearth of really meaty data from the UK means that the pound remains at the mercy of sentiment towards the US dollar. In particular everyone will be keeping an eye out for durable goods this afternoon. The usually volatile figure is expected to see a rise of 0.5% for September, up from August’s 18.4% drop, but the more useful ex transportation figure (which strips out airline orders and other such volatile numbers) is forecast to rise 0.5% from 0.4% in August. In addition we’ll get some consumer confidence data and, if both these heavy-hitting numbers come in ahead of expectations, we could see a rally in US dollar-buying ahead of the FOMC tomorrow.
We saw the intraday RSI touch oversold levels yesterday but since then buyers have stepped out of the picture. Immediate support could be found close to yesterday’s lows at $1.6094, while the 200-hour MA at $1.6080 is going to be an important line in the sand.
On the daily chart, recent pushes above the 20-DMA have been the signal for further selling of this pair, and while the daily RSI is still in the ascendant a failure to move above 50 in this indicator would also give a clear bearish signal.