Scottish referendum driving GBP/USD lower
Monday, like the previous Monday, saw European currency traders reassessing the risk of Scotland becoming an independent country and the implications it would have on the Pound. The weekends poll saw the ‘Yes’ vote for independence take the lead for the first time, something only a couple of weeks ago would have been seen as unthinkable.
This morning has seen GBP/USD floating some 500 pips lower than where it closed the previous month. In just over two months the cable rate has now dropped over 1000 pips, and this morning it is some 6.35% lower than its year highs set at the beginning of July.
So where now for the heavily oversold GBP/USD? Certainly the $1.60 level is a physiological level of support that also coincides with the 100-week moving average.
Under normal circumstances the fact that Bank of England governor Mark Carney is speaking today, in Liverpool at 11.45am, would be cause for currency-market caution, but developments in Scotland could continue to drive the markets.