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AUD stabilises after yesterday’s rout

The RBA’s decision yesterday saw a big reaction in price action with the yield on the 10-yr dropping to another record low of 2.277%.

AUD
Source: Bloomberg

With the RBA finally doing away with its call for ‘a period of stability in rates’, it’s anyone’s guess where we go from here. There are numerous calls for the RBA to follow up this cut with another in March. By all means most key indicators remain underwhelming and the RBA still feels a weaker AUD is needed to achieve balanced growth. AUD/USD traded to a low of $0.76265 but has since reversed quite significantly along with other risk currencies. The pair is now back at 0.7800 and remains in fairly neutral territory at the moment. The local calendar is very quiet today but tomorrow we have retail sales and NAB quarterly business confidence. Friday is the big one when we get the RBA monetary policy statement which is a more detailed version of yesterday’s meeting. Markets are pricing a further rate cut at one of the next two meetings, and plenty of analysts feel the RBA hardly makes a move after such a long period without following this up. Governor Glen Stevens has a parliamentary testimony next week and this is likely to further revelations. While AUD/USD has stabilised, mainly driven by a recovery in risk and commodities, it still seems rate expectations will keep the AUD offered. Strength is likely to be used as an opportunity to sell particularly in the 0.7882 region. This is the 38.2% retracement of the January to February drop. Traders will have to consider stops above the $0.8000 mark.

 

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