The information on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG Bank S.A. accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it and as such is considered to be a marketing communication.
As was largely anticipated, the ECB announced quantitative easing with monthly asset purchases to the tune of €60 billion a month and a target to be met in 18 months (September 2016). EUR/USD was naturally the most watched pair and it dropped to a low of $1.1317, lowest since September 2003. The euro has been an obvious trade for a while as the ECB made its intentions quite clear. Given the fact the ECB left the door open for further changes to the programme which it branded ‘open ended’ then further euro weakness could be on the way. Traders are likely to continue eyeing selling EUR/USD into strength and taking advantage of the fact it remains in a downtrend. There had been some stability for the pair ahead of the ECB meeting with support kicking in at around $1.1500. This level will now become near term resistance and could be a source of fresh shorts. I would be cautious about selling at current levels as the move appears exhausted at the moment with the RSI being deep in oversold territory. Just how low this pair can go remains a contentious issue and while analysts’ year-end forecasts are all over the place at the moment, I suspect we’ll see some revisions lower in coming weeks.