AUD in focus ahead of the RBA

The main theme in the FX space was the US dollar losing ground to the majors in a post-payrolls slump.

Source: Bloomberg

The Labour Market Conditions Index was the only major release and showed slow jobs momentum in September. This reading combines 19 labour market variables and showed a moderation in the reduction of slack. This was enough to trigger some profit taking on a hot USD, with the dollar index dropping from a four-year high. The AUD was one of the best-performing currencies against the greenback as a recovery in commodities and emerging markets aided a reversal.

Traders still looking to sell into strength

AUD/USD saw January lows hold and we’ve witnessed a big rally from that support level. The RBA won’t be pleased and are therefore likely to continue talking the currency down today. Today’s RBA meeting isn’t really expected to bring anything new, but there is a chance there’ll be some commentary around the property market and perhaps the AUD.

However, I still don’t expect anything groundbreaking from today’s meeting. While there is still resistance in the $0.88 region, it could run a bit further today before fresh selling kicks in. Despite this, bias remains to the downside. Any Fed commentary this week will be key.

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