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Stevens talks down the AUD

The ADP non-farm employment change came in at a much-better-than-expected 281,000, smashing estimates of 207,000.

RBA
Source: Bloomberg

This saw expectations ramp up as we head into the official non-farm payrolls reading at 10.30pm (AEST). AUD/USD has gone through quite a bit of volatility over the past 24 hours, with an initial pullback from 0.950 triggered by a disappointing trade balance reading. We have seen these losses extended in Asia today after RBA Governor Glen Stevens’ comments regarding the exchange rate. The key point was that ‘investors are underestimating the likelihood of a significant fall in the Australian dollar at some point’. This triggered an AUD/USD slide to 0.938 where it now seems to have found some stability.

Traders could buy pullbacks

On top on Stevens comments we also had retail sales which came in a below consensus in a move mainly blamed on the Federal budget whilst building approvals showed a significant bounce. This seems to have balanced out sentiment for now and there now seems to be a bit of uncertainty around how to play the currency.

From a price action perspective, there is an uptrend support line which comes in around 0.9367. This has been in place since February and is likely to come into play again today. Traders looking to buy at these levels should consider tight stops as there is more event risk, with US non-farms on the

Spot FX AUD/USD chart
Click to enlarge

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