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A look at AUD/USD technicals

The pair failed to re-take the former uptrend on June 12 and is now reverting to the mean - 20-day moving average - after closing two standard deviations from this average.

ASX
Source: Bloomberg

This puts the 20-day average in play at 0.9313 and judging by the fact it is starting to turn higher we could see buyers here. The 20-day seems to be important now for the bulls.

A break of the 20-day could see the lower Bollinger being tested in the short-term, which also happens to converge with the 200-day MA and series of lows through May. Stochastics have broken through the 20 level (although could still give a failed signal), so I am watching this oscillator as it could indicate a deeper sell-off.

In a sideways trading market, Bollinger bands are generally excellent ways of playing this market condition.

I suggested potentially buying AUD/USD last week at 0.9350 (the 38.2% retracement of the recent rally), but price has breezed through this level, so I have closed the positions (given the failure of any bounce). I will look to see if the pair finds buyers at the 20-day, otherwise there are signs the pair could head to the lower Bollinger.

The break higher in US yields seems be getting the USD bulls fairly excited.

Spot FX AUD/USD chart
Click to enlarge

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