Technical analysis: key levels for gold and crude

Gold’s breakout appears to have run its course, while oil prices find themselves at a critical juncture.

Gold bars
Source: Bloomberg

Gold turns lower
With the price back below $1280 it looks like the latest bounce in gold is at an end.

Indeed, with the price turning lower this morning we now look towards short-term support around $1270, with a move below here pushing the price in the direction of the 50-day SMA at $1246. 

Brent risks a drop down
Oil prices have rallied commendably, but the risk is that a failure to get back above $46.50 would signal that this is just a retracement before a new leg down.

A fresh drop would target $44 and then down towards the 200-day SMA at $42.64. A close above $46.50 would indicate that the pullback from the 2016 highs has run its course.

Critical point reached for WTI
WTI has recovered much lost ground, and if the price can hold above $45 today then it may be about to begin a new move higher. A failure to hold $45 however replicates the outlook for Brent, namely more downside.

If the price does move lower then we look towards $42.60 in the first instance, and then down towards $40 itself. 

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