Technical analysis: key levels for gold, silver and crude

Reports of further Russian involvement in Ukraine have given gold and silver a boost, while oil continues to rise slowly from lows seen earlier in the month.

Oil pump
Source: Bloomberg

Gold targets 100-DMA

Gold has moved above $1290 once again this morning, but will need to hold above here if it is to make any progress higher.

A move above the 200-day moving average and the rising daily relative strength index does suggest that we may finally be seeing some upward momentum. On the upside the 100-DMA around $1296 becomes a near-term target, and then on to the big $1300 level, the round number that seems to repeatedly crop up.

The hourly chart shows the 200-hour moving average has been breached to the upside for the first time since 6 August, although a sharply overbought reading on the intraday RSI is a point of concern. Rising support, however, should be found in the region of the 50-hour MA.

Silver heads back to $19.80

A sharp move in silver has carried it through the July downtrend line, pushing the price back towards $19.80 for the first time in around two weeks.

Now the price must clear the 100-DMA around $19.95, while the $20.05 zone has also proven to be tricky. However, we are seeing upturns in the daily moving average convergence/divergence and stochastic momentum indicators as well as the sharp rise in the daily RSI. Such a confluence of indicators has not been seen since the beginning of June, when the price surged from below $19 to above $21 in the space of a few weeks.

The $19.50 zone now serves as support on the downside.

$102.50 stemming Brent selling

Recent attempts to break through $103 in this market have been defeated, but the steady rise from levels near $101 earlier in the month is intact.

Brent needs to move above $103 to maintain the momentum, but attempts to break through the 20-DMA in recent weeks have all been halted.

The hourly chart shows a steady rise in Brent over the past two weeks, and with the intraday RSI holding above 50 there is reason to expect another attempt to clear $103. On the downside $102.50 has stemmed the selling so far today, leading to a tight trading range for the commodity over the past 48 hours.

WTI supported by $93.40

The $94 level is currently a big area for WTI and presents major resistance, even if like Brent the commodity has recovered from the lows earlier in the month.

A move from oversold levels on the daily RSI and a turn higher for the MACD in the same timeframe may point to additional upside, but $94.40 is also going to be something of a hurdle.

Rising support off the month lows can now be found around $93.40, although the 50-hour MA has held back progress so far today.

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