Levels to watch: gold, silver and crude

A weaker dollar and a slight bounce in equity markets seem to have contained the downside in oil prices for now, while at the same time capping the upside in metals. We also saw better-than-expected China trade balance data this morning which is aiding the upside in oil prices.

Silver bullion
Source: Bloomberg

Silver in $30 range

With the gap up from the Friday close now filled, the bounceback in risky assets today means the $17.70 level remains the barrier to upside for silver. With the metal price stuck in a tight $30 range, it’s worth keeping an eye on any moves through the 100-period MA on the four-hour chart. We have now had four unsuccessful attempts at breaching this metric. A move through here could see the bearish channel from the $21.50 July highs broken, and puts the $18 marker in sight.

Presently the uptrend from the $16.70 lows on the H1 chart remains intact, with the rising support coinciding with the 100H MA.

A pull back through the $17.20 level sees a return to $17.06 then $16.70.

Gold find support around $1225

Gold prices remain capped by the $1240, although some support is being found at the 50 H MA around $1225 – this coincides with the rising trend line support from the lows of $1180/oz.

The daily chart is reminiscent of the action seen following the all-time highs of $1900/oz all the way back in 2011. Back then, we saw a succession of lower highs with a base around $1530/40 per oz.

This time looks similar but with the $1180 marker keeping the bears at bay for now and the bias would be to remain above these levels as market uncertainty takes hold. A close through $1237 would put the metal on a move towards the 50-daily moving average at $1253. The overall target is $1280.

Any move back through $1215/oz puts gold back on a trip towards the lows.

Oil eyes potential double bottom

Oil prices have found a base at $88.40/bbl for the time being. We may yet see the gap down from the Friday close filled – this is currently just above the $90/bbl level, before a resumption of the move down.

There is a potential double bottom to watch for on the hourly chart with the neckline coming in at $90.81 – together, this resistance and the confluence of the 100H MA mean that any move through would be tipped for a move back, and would be expected to test the 200H MA at $92.05.

A move back through $88.40 (daily close) puts the $86.20 level in sight.

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