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Strong resistance drives gold lower again

After breaking out of a downward trend dating back to 2011, gold reached a new annual high last week at US $1,301 per troy ounce.

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But at that level, selling pressure soon returned, quickly pushing prices back down to just under US $1,280 per troy ounce.

Gold has benefited from two trends in the past few weeks: the dollar has continued to weaken, while political risks have increased. Although gold should normally be losing ground in the context of rising interest rates and more restrictive central bank policies, the counterargument to those pressures goes by the name of Donald Trump. His out-of-control tweets and statements in the past few weeks have been fuelling speculation about an early end to his presidency, while also feeding doubts about his ability to actually achieve his ambitious plans for tax and infrastructure reform (see article: Trump is rapidly losing control of his presidency). Trump is also becoming increasingly unpredictable on the foreign policy front, which doesn’t help his situation.

All of these factors could lead to a sustained upward trend for gold. If it crosses the US $1,300 mark, we could see a rapid rise to as much as US $1,380 per troy ounce.

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