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Technical analysis: key levels for gold and crude

Volatility is almost certain as we approach the referendum results, with commodities likely to be affected by any shifts in risk sentiment.

Oil plant
Source: Bloomberg

Gold

Gold prices have stabilised, moving off the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) – $1257 – after sharp losses earlier in the week. However, further risk-on sentiment could see the price continue its move lower, pushing below $1257 to $1244.

Upside targets would be $1280 and then $1300. A longer-term move below $1244 risks a swift drop to $1200.

Gold

Brent

The rally off last week's lows looks under pressure here, so a move through $50 and then down towards $49.20 would likely hand back control to the sellers.

In that case, we would look to the 50-day SMA at $48 as the next target. A bounce needs to clear $51 to open the way to the June high around $53.

Brent

WTI

The overnight bounce is fading, so a move back below $49 would signal a reversal here. If the price rallies back above $49.50 we may see a test of the highs earlier in the week around $50.50, which would then leave the June peak at $51.50.

Further losses would head towards $48.50 and then $46, the June low. 

WTI

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